Helderberg Property Market - 2019 Sales Volumes & Average Property Prices

Cape Town area is experiencing a deflation in house prices across the majority of regions of the city - creating the slowest capital growth rate since the end of 2009, and the second consecutive quarter of a real house price decline (i.e. net growth below the inflation rate).

The Helderberg area as a whole has experience a negative real price growth rate of minus 2,3% - i.e. 4% (inflation) - 1,7% growth.

The year-on-year price growth has declined sharply in the Helderberg - from 5.3% in the last quarter of 2018 to just 1.7% in Q1, 2019. House prices had been growing at around 10% in this region in 2017 and early 2018.

According to Property24 website information, Gordons Bay has seen an unprecedented drop in house's sales volumes - with monthly sales for the first 5 months of 2019 falling with falling with 70,2% in comparison with 2018 monthly sales and 75% in comparison with 2017 monthly sales volumes.

Price growth of houses in Gordons Bay has also grinded to a relative standstill between 2017 and 2019 - growing by just 1,56% in this period. Apartments in Gordons Bay have achieved good capital growth rates (price increases) - growing with 17,73% between 2017 and 2019. This is much better than the price growth achieved over the same period in the apartment markets of Strand (plus 1,4%) and Somerset West (minus 17%).

• Somerset West - property on market - Dec 18 (1 953) vs 2 209 (May 2019) = 256 / 13% more properties on market

- Houses Monthly Sales @ May for 2019 = 46,2 per month for 2019 vs 48,1 p.m. (2018) & 68 p.m (2017) & 75 (2016) & 78 (2015) & 95 (2014) & 56 p.m. (2010)

- Houses Sales Volume drop in 2019 of 4% relative to 2018 & 32% relative to 2017

- Houses Average Price increase - R2,6 mil (2017) to R2,6 mil (2018) to R2,7 mil (2019) = 3,8% increase in price between 2017 & 2019

- Apartment Monthly Sales @ May for 2019 = 56,6 per month for 2019 vs 48,1 p.m. (2018) & 41,6 p.m. (2017) & 35,8 p.m (2016) & 33,6 p.m (2015) & 30,4 p.m (2014) & 19,4 p.m.(2010)

- Apartment Sales Volume increase in 2019 of 17,7% relative to 2018 & 36% relative to 2017

- Apartment Average Price drop - R1,445 mil (2017) to R1,349 mil (2018) to R1,2 mil (2019) = 17% drop in price between 2017 & 2019

• Strand - property on market - Dec 18 (1 206) vs 1 384 (May 2019) = 178 / 14,75% more properties on market

- Houses Monthly Sales @ May for 2019 = 32,4 per month for 2019 vs 67,33 p.m. (2018) & 59,6 p.m. (2017) & 90,3 p.m (2016) & 60,75 p.m (2015) & 48,1 p.m (2014) & 36,6 p.m.(2011)

- Houses Sales Volume drop in 2019 of 51,9% relative to 2018 & 45,6% relative to 2017

- Houses Average Price increase - R675 000 (2017) to R1 197 500 (2019) = 77 % increase in price between 2017 & 2019 (I suspect that a development has influenced the average prices between 2017 and 2018 - this is not a true reflection of the average prices in the market)!

- Apartment Monthly Sales @ May for 2019 = 42,8 per month for 2019 vs 62,9 p.m. (2018) & 76,8 p.m. (2017) & 86,1 p.m (2016) & 75,7 p.m. (2015) & 50,58 p.m. (2014) & 30,66 p.m.(2010)

- Apartment Sales Volume drop in 2019 of 32% relative to 2018 & % relative to 2017

- Apartment Average Price increase - R700 000 (2017) to R690 000 (2018) to R710 000(2019) = 1,4% increase in price between 2017 & 2019

• Gordons Bay - property on market - Dec 18 (1 322) vs 1 452 (May 2019) = 130 / 9,83% more properties on market

- Apartment Monthly Sales @ May for 2019 = 10,4 per month for 2019 vs 15,9 p.m. (2018) & 15,3 p.m. (2017) & 15,9 p.m. (2016) & 15,6 p.m. (2015) & 12 p.m. (2014) & 9,66 p.m.(2010)

- Apartment Sales Volume drop in 2019 of 34,6% relative to 2018 & 32% relative to 2017

- Apartment Average Price increase - R552 500 (2017) to R580 000 (2018) to R650 000(2019) = 17,73% increase in price between 2017 & 2019

- Houses Monthly Sales @ May for 2019 = 5,16 per month for 2019 vs 17,33 p.m. (2018) & 20,66 p.m. (2017) & 22,9 p.m (2016) & 23,5 p.m. (2015) & 26 p.m. (2014) & 17,66 p.m.(2010)

- Houses Sales Volume drop in 2019 of 236% relative to 2018 & 300% relative to 2017

- Houses Average Price increase - R1,28 mil (2017) to R1,397 mil (2018) to R1,3 mil (2019) = 1,56% increase in price between 2017 & 2019

Only Elsies River / Blue Downs/ Macassar & the Cape Flats have at present a positive capital growth (in real terms) in the Cape Town metropole - i.e. growing at a rate which is better or higher than inflation.

- Elsies River / Blue Downs / Macassar = 10,1% - 4% (inflation) = real price growth of 6,1%

- Cape Flats = 12,1% - 4% (inflation) = real price growth of 8,1%

- Bellville and Parow and surrounds are in real terms on 0% price growth rate.

All the other Cape Town metropole regions are at present experiencing negative price growth rates - with the Northern Suburbs achieving much better capital growth rates than the Southern Suburbs and the Atlantic Seaboard.

- Durbanville / Kraaifontein / Brackenfell = 4% (inflation) - 2,9% = real price decrease of minus 1,1%

- Blouberg / Milnerton / Melkbosstrand = 4% (inflation) - 1,8% price growth = real price decrease of minus 2,2%

- Southern Peninsula (Fish Hoek, Noordhoek etc.) = 4% (inflation) - 1% price growth = real price decrease of minus 3%

- Cape Town City Bowl (CBD) = 4% (inflation) + 2% nominal price decrease = real price decrease of minus 6%

- Southern Suburbs = 4% (inflation) + minus 2,4% price growth = real price decrease of minus 6,24%

- Eastern Suburbs = 4% (inflation) + 4,2% nominal price decrease = real price decrease of minus 8,2%

- Atlantic Seaboard = 4% (inflation) - 5,1% nominal price decrease = real price decrease of minus 9,1%